Overview
Discounted cash flow
Income / accounting-based
Multiples & assets
Scenario
Toolbox
Weighted blend
$97.89
-5.14% vs spot
Underweight
Spot price
$103.20
Mkt cap $11.01B
subtle cardAnalyst PT consensus
$113.38
+9.86% vs spot
subtle cardMethods covered
10 / 11
7 in blend
subtle cardFootball field
SJM · fair-value range by method
Method comparison
SJM · fair value by valuation framework
| Method | Category | Fair value | Range | vs spot | Weight | Driver | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF · FCFF | dcf | $128.59 | $129.54 – $274.42 | +24.60% | 35.7% | WACC 5.0%, g₀=-4.3%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DCF · FCFE | dcf | $98.60 | $102.42 – $156.92 | -4.46% | 26.8% | kₑ 5.6%, g₀=-4.3%, gₗ=2.0% | high |
| DDM · Gordon | ddm | $130.47 | $101.82 – $181.59 | +26.43% | — | D₁ 4.54, kₑ 5.6%, gₗ 2.0% | low |
| DDM · H-model | ddm | $90.33 | $101.82 – $152.43 | -12.47% | — | D₀ 4.54, g₀=-4.3%, gₗ=2.0%, H 5y | low |
| DDM · multi-stage | ddm | $112.06 | $95.25 – $128.87 | +8.58% | 8.9% | 5y schedule -4.3% → 2.0%, kₑ 5.6% | low |
| Residual income | income | $30.88 | $27.17 – $34.58 | -70.08% | 17.9% | BV 60.70, ROE -20.2% → kₑ | low |
| P/S · sector | multiple | $139.32 | $118.43 – $160.22 | +35.00% | 5.4% | Rev/sh 87.08 × peer P/S 1.60 | med |
| EV / Sales | multiple | $41.67 | $35.42 – $47.92 | -59.62% | 3.6% | Sales × peer 1.36× − ND | med |
| Book NAV | asset | $60.70 | $57.66 – $63.73 | -41.18% | 1.8% | (Assets − Liabilities) / Shares | high |
| Liquidation | asset | $8.33 | $7.08 – $9.58 | -91.93% | — | Cash 100% + non-cash 70% − Liab. | low |
| Reverse DCF | reverse | — | — | — | — | Implied g -6.3% · Pessimistic — market pricing decline | high |
Cost-of-capital build-up
CAPM cost of equity, after-tax cost of debt, WACC. Risk-free as of 2026-05-12.
| Risk-free rate (US 10y Treasury)rf | 4.46% |
| Equity beta (0.24)β | × 0.24 |
| Equity risk premiumERP | 4.46% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM)kₑ | 5.55% |
| Pre-tax cost of debtkd | 4.62% |
| Effective tax ratet | 0.0% |
| After-tax cost of debt | 4.62% |
| Equity weight$6.1B | 43.9% |
| Debt weight$7.8B | 56.1% |
| WACC | 5.03% |
Growth assumptions
Blended forward growth used as DCF default; terminal pegged to long-run nominal GDP.
| Analyst forward revenue growthFMP | 4.50% |
| Analyst forward EPS growthFMP | — |
| Historical 5y revenue CAGRFY | 2.19% |
| Historical 5y EPS CAGRFY | -4.33% |
| Sustainable g (ROE × retention)Δ | -20.23% |
| Blended near-term growth (g₀) | -4.28% |
| Terminal growth (gₗ) | 2.00% |
Sources
- FMP /analyst-estimates— 8 rows(as of 2023-04-29)
- Treasury rates · 10y— 4.46% rf(as of 2026-05-12)
- market_risk_premium · DB— 4.46% ERP(as of 2026-05-13)
- Sector multiple defaults— Consumer Defensive (live sector PE unavailable)
- FMP /price-target-consensus— mean $113.38
This page is generated by a quantitative valuation engine for research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Methodology follows standard CFA / Damodaran frameworks; assumptions are driven by analyst consensus from Financial Modeling Prep and reported financial statements.