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Arphra AIPlain-English read on Southwest Airlines Co.’s valuationIncome statement
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue & profit | |||||||||
| Revenue | $15.79B | $23.81B | $26.09B | $27.48B | $28.06B | $32.71B | $33.86B | $35.18B | $36.28B |
| Cost of revenue | $11.68B | $19.06B | $21.87B | $23.02B | $23.17B | $26.57B | $27.58B | $30.2B | $30.88B |
| Gross profit | $4.12B | $4.75B | $4.22B | $4.46B | $4.9B | $5.51B | $5.54B | $5.99B | $6.19B |
| Gross margin | +26.06% | +19.95% | +16.19% | +16.22% | +17.44% | +16.85% | +16.35% | +17.02% | +17.07% |
| Operating | |||||||||
| Research & development | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Selling, general & administrative | $185M | $224M | $266M | $346M | $4.47B | $2B | $2B | $2.18B | $2.19B |
| Total operating expenses | $2.39B | $3.74B | $4B | $4.14B | $4.47B | $4.93B | $5.09B | $5.44B | $5.52B |
| Operating income | $1.72B | $1.02B | $224M | $321M | $428M | $394.46M | $396.55M | $424.15M | $418.2M |
| Operating margin | +10.90% | +4.27% | +0.86% | +1.17% | +1.53% | +1.21% | +1.17% | +1.21% | +1.15% |
| EBITDA | $3.03B | $2.38B | $2.39B | $2.47B | $2.24B | $2.9B | $2.98B | $3.1B | $3.18B |
| EBIT | $1.76B | $1.03B | $869M | $812M | $676M | $957.54M | $952.49M | $1.04B | $1.05B |
| Below the line | |||||||||
| Interest expense | $431M | $301M | $236M | $214M | $113M | $227.73M | $234.68M | $247.49M | $247.36M |
| Interest income | $13M | $217M | $583M | $497M | $205M | $520.79M | $537.87M | $565.9M | $574.4M |
| Other income / expense | -$396M | -$289M | $409M | $277M | $135M | — | — | — | — |
| Pre-tax income | $1.33B | $728M | $633M | $598M | $563M | $739.52M | $765.28M | $796.43M | $819.27M |
| Income tax expense | $348M | $189M | $168M | $133M | $122M | $172.94M | $170.76M | $182.9M | $193.19M |
| Earnings | |||||||||
| Net income | $977M | $539M | $465M | $465M | $441M | $392.1M | $392.23M | $409.52M | $438.72M |
| Net income · continuing ops | $977M | $539M | $465M | $465M | $441M | $542.35M | $558.73M | $607.36M | $615.19M |
| Net margin | +6.19% | +2.26% | +1.78% | +1.69% | +1.57% | +1.20% | +1.16% | +1.16% | +1.21% |
| EPS · basic | $1.65 | $0.91 | $0.81 | $0.81 | $0.82 | $2.86 | $4.88 | $5.41 | $5.40 |
| EPS · diluted | $1.61 | $0.87 | $0.76 | $0.75 | $0.79 | $2.67 | $4.54 | $5.14 | $5.06 |
| EPS · low estimate | — | — | — | — | — | $1.42 | $3.63 | $4.23 | $4.83 |
| EPS · high estimate | — | — | — | — | — | $3.91 | $5.41 | $6.45 | $5.21 |
| Shares · basic | 592M | 593M | 595M | 598M | 540M | 540.71M | 540.18M | 542.08M | 545.02M |
| Shares · diluted | 609M | 642M | 640M | 643M | 558M | 555.01M | 563.15M | 555.18M | 555.76M |
| Coverage | |||||||||
| Analysts (revenue) | — | — | — | — | — | 16 | 16 | 14 | 9 |
| Analysts (EPS) | — | — | — | — | — | 14 | 14 | 8 | 6 |
Coverage notes. Historical figures come’s as-reported income statements / balance sheets / cash flows in our data warehouse. Forecast columns (italicised, faint accent tint) carry vendor-supplied numbers where available (revenue + EPS consensus) and ratio-derived values for every other line. Margins / ratios are the trailing-3y average from history applied to the forecast revenue; values are clamped to enforce P&L identity (gross ≥ operating, EBITDA ≥ operating, net ≤ operating) and balance-sheet identity (assets = liabilities + equity by construction). Cash-flow FCF reconciles to OCF + CapEx. USD conversion uses the period-end close of the issuer's reported/USD pair from forex_prices_daily; share counts stay unconverted.
Financials
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