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Arphra AIPlain-English read on Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.’s valuationRatios & metrics
Profitability, returns on capital, growth, and credit — all derived from the historical income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow rows in our data warehouse.
Valuation multiples
Price- and EV-based multiples plus shareholder yields. Snapshot at each fiscal year-end from key_metrics (FMP).
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline | |||||||||
| Market cap | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Enterprise value | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Multiples | |||||||||
| P / E | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P / B | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EV / EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EV / Sales | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EV / FCF | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yields | |||||||||
| Earnings yield | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow yield | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Profitability
Margin structure across the last 5 fiscal years
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margins | |||||||||
| Gross margin | +22.62% | +23.88% | +26.20% | +26.67% | +25.38% | +25.49% | +26.05% | +25.64% | +25.94% |
| Operating margin | +10.67% | +13.44% | +15.78% | +16.94% | +16.88% | +16.63% | +16.38% | +16.81% | +16.92% |
| EBITDA margin | +14.58% | +17.35% | +19.78% | +20.51% | +19.91% | +19.59% | +20.06% | +20.01% | +19.63% |
| EBIT margin | +11.20% | +14.03% | +16.54% | +17.55% | +16.88% | +16.73% | +16.89% | +17.03% | +17.02% |
| Pre-tax margin | +10.77% | +13.68% | +16.42% | +17.77% | +16.85% | +17.49% | +17.31% | +17.48% | +17.29% |
| Net margin | +8.65% | +10.41% | +12.45% | +13.56% | +12.88% | +12.65% | +13.23% | +13.16% | +12.91% |
| Cost structure | |||||||||
| Cost of revenue / sales | +77.38% | +76.12% | +73.80% | +73.33% | +74.62% | +72.90% | +76.02% | +73.67% | +72.50% |
| R&D intensity | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| SG&A intensity | +8.04% | +6.53% | +6.42% | +6.16% | +5.47% | +6.04% | +5.91% | +5.88% | +6.11% |
| Effective tax rate | +19.66% | +23.90% | +24.18% | +23.68% | +23.58% | +23.72% | +23.00% | +23.36% | +23.38% |
Returns on capital
ROE / ROA / ROC / ROIC over the relevant capital base, plus the 3-step DuPont decomposition of ROE.
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||||
| Return on equity (ROE) | +28.42% | +37.97% | +40.13% | +41.97% | +54.26% | +42.79% | +45.65% | +46.29% | +45.10% |
| Return on assets (ROA) | +9.81% | +12.98% | +15.27% | +16.67% | +17.07% | +15.67% | +16.21% | +16.38% | +16.00% |
| Return on capital (ROC) | +13.84% | +19.02% | +21.90% | +23.38% | +15.87% | +19.65% | +19.41% | +20.30% | +20.70% |
| Return on invested capital (ROIC) | +11.22% | +14.74% | +17.27% | +18.72% | +12.11% | +14.94% | +15.68% | +15.90% | +15.80% |
| Asset turnover | +113.44% | +124.64% | +122.72% | +122.92% | +132.59% | +123.92% | +122.52% | +124.44% | +123.93% |
| DuPont · ROE decomposition | |||||||||
| Net margin | +8.65% | +10.41% | +12.45% | +13.56% | +12.88% | +12.65% | +13.23% | +13.16% | +12.91% |
| Asset turnover (× revenue / assets) | +113.44% | +124.64% | +122.72% | +122.92% | +132.59% | +123.92% | +122.52% | +124.44% | +123.93% |
| Equity multiplier (× assets / equity) | +289.59% | +292.54% | +262.70% | +251.79% | +317.76% | +272.98% | +281.62% | +282.69% | +281.94% |
Activity & efficiency
Turnover ratios and days-outstanding — how efficiently the business converts assets and working capital into sales and cash.
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnover | |||||||||
| Asset turnover | 1.13 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.33 | 1.24 | 1.23 | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| Fixed-asset turnover | 1.54 | 1.64 | 1.72 | 1.77 | 1.67 | — | — | — | — |
| Inventory turnover | 177.91 | 184.27 | 185.34 | 169.51 | 179.76 | — | — | — | — |
| Receivables turnover | 38.97 | 55.84 | 58.59 | 53.57 | 48.11 | — | — | — | — |
| Payables turnover | 35.79 | 35.61 | 36.86 | 39.38 | 41.82 | — | — | — | — |
| Days outstanding | |||||||||
| Days sales outstanding (DSO) | 9.37 | 6.54 | 6.23 | 6.81 | 7.59 | — | — | — | — |
| Days inventory outstanding (DIO) | 2.05 | 1.98 | 1.97 | 2.15 | 2.03 | — | — | — | — |
| Days payables outstanding (DPO) | 10.20 | 10.25 | 9.90 | 9.27 | 8.73 | — | — | — | — |
| Cash conversion cycle | 1.22 | -1.73 | -1.70 | -0.30 | 0.89 | — | — | — | — |
Cash flow quality
How well reported earnings translate into operating and free cash flow, plus reinvestment intensity.
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating CF / Net income | 1.96 | 1.47 | 1.45 | 1.37 | 1.38 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.41 | 1.37 |
| FCF / Net income | 1.29 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.96 | 0.99 |
| FCF margin | +11.12% | +9.77% | +12.39% | +13.36% | +12.14% | +12.42% | +12.30% | +12.64% | +12.84% |
| OCF margin | +16.99% | +15.32% | +18.07% | +18.61% | +17.73% | +17.68% | +18.40% | +18.51% | +17.71% |
| CapEx / Revenue | +5.86% | +5.55% | +5.68% | +5.25% | +5.59% | +5.43% | +5.36% | +5.66% | +5.58% |
| CapEx / D&A | 1.74 | 1.67 | 1.76 | 1.77 | 1.84 | — | — | — | — |
| Stock-based comp / Revenue | +2.34% | +1.14% | +1.26% | +1.16% | +1.00% | — | — | — | — |
Per-share & shareholder yield
EPS, book value, sales, cash flow and dividends per share — plus payout / retention.
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS · diluted | 0.46 | 0.64 | 0.89 | 1.11 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.36 | 1.60 | 2.01 |
| EPS · basic | 0.46 | 0.65 | 0.89 | 1.12 | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.36 | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Book value / share | 1.61 | 1.69 | 2.21 | 2.66 | 2.11 | 2.87 | 3.08 | 3.39 | 3.82 |
| Tangible BV / share | 1.60 | 1.67 | 2.19 | 2.64 | 2.09 | 2.87 | 3.08 | 3.39 | 3.82 |
| Sales / share | 5.29 | 6.15 | 7.12 | 8.22 | 8.88 | 9.70 | 10.64 | 11.93 | 13.36 |
| Operating CF / share | 0.90 | 0.94 | 1.29 | 1.53 | 1.57 | 1.72 | 1.96 | 2.21 | 2.37 |
| Free cash flow / share | 0.59 | 0.60 | 0.88 | 1.10 | 1.08 | 1.21 | 1.31 | 1.51 | 1.72 |
| Dividends / share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Payout ratio | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Retention ratio | +100.00% | +100.00% | +100.00% | +100.00% | +100.00% | +100.00% | +100.00% | +100.00% | +100.00% |
Growth
Year-over-year change for headline P&L lines, plus through-cycle CAGR
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 8y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top-line | ||||||||||
| Revenue · YoY | — | +14.41% | +14.33% | +14.61% | +5.41% | +8.84% | +10.89% | +10.86% | +13.49% | +11.56% |
| Gross profit · YoY | — | +20.80% | +25.41% | +16.69% | +0.28% | +9.32% | +13.36% | +9.11% | +14.80% | +13.49% |
| Profit | ||||||||||
| Operating income · YoY | — | +44.16% | +34.25% | +23.01% | +5.03% | +7.25% | +9.21% | +13.75% | +14.22% | +18.18% |
| EBITDA · YoY | — | +36.16% | +30.35% | +18.83% | +2.33% | +7.08% | +13.55% | +10.59% | +11.33% | +15.79% |
| Net income · YoY | — | +37.69% | +36.66% | +24.85% | +0.11% | +6.90% | +15.97% | +10.28% | +11.33% | +17.28% |
| Operating | ||||||||||
| EBIT · YoY | — | +43.24% | +34.85% | +21.56% | +1.39% | +7.85% | +11.98% | +11.80% | +13.43% | +17.55% |
| R&D · YoY | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Per-share | ||||||||||
| EPS · diluted · YoY | — | +39.13% | +39.06% | +24.72% | +2.70% | -0.39% | +19.64% | +17.71% | +25.41% | +20.21% |
| EPS · basic · YoY | — | +41.30% | +36.92% | +25.84% | +2.68% | +0.62% | +17.76% | +17.23% | +24.98% | +20.14% |
Credit & leverage
Balance-sheet health + interest coverage + liquidity. Coverage ratios use period-end debt and trailing interest expense.
ActualEstimate
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverage | |||||||||
| Total debt | $3.52B | $3.73B | $4.05B | $4.54B | $9.85B | $7.15B | $7.98B | $8.67B | $9.62B |
| Net debt | $2.7B | $3.35B | $3.49B | $3.79B | $9.5B | $6.49B | $7.25B | $7.84B | $8.68B |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 2.46 | 2.23 | 1.79 | 1.63 | 4.00 | 2.55 | 2.51 | 2.46 | 2.44 |
| Debt / equity | 1.53 | 1.58 | 1.32 | 1.24 | 3.48 | 1.86 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.86 |
| Debt / assets | +52.91% | +53.86% | +50.37% | +49.33% | +109.50% | +68.27% | +67.89% | +67.65% | +65.81% |
| Equity / assets | +34.53% | +34.18% | +38.07% | +39.72% | +31.47% | +36.63% | +35.51% | +35.37% | +35.47% |
| Coverage | |||||||||
| EBITDA / interest expense | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income / interest | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Interest expense | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Liquidity | |||||||||
| Current ratio | 1.58 | 1.28 | 1.57 | 1.52 | 1.23 | — | — | — | — |
| Quick ratio | 1.45 | 1.14 | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.09 | — | — | — | — |
| Cash ratio | 0.93 | 0.42 | 0.54 | 0.64 | 0.30 | — | — | — | — |
| Working capital | $507.88M | $253.96M | $590.09M | $611.82M | $278.81M | — | — | — | — |
| Working capital / revenue | +6.73% | +2.94% | +5.98% | +5.41% | +2.34% | — | — | — | — |
Methodology. ROE / ROA / ROC use period-end balance-sheet denominators (no average-of- period smoothing). ROIC = Operating Income × (1 − inferred effective tax rate) over invested capital, with the effective tax inferred from net-to-operating income when both are positive and a 25% default otherwise. Net debt / EBITDA, debt ratios, and interest-coverage ratios are calculated point-in-time at each fiscal year-end. TTM = trailing 4 quarters (income / cash flow summed, balance sheet = most-recent quarterly snapshot). Through-cycle CAGR in the Growth panel uses the geometric mean of first-to-last period growth across the window (positive values only).