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Arphra AIPlain-English read on Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.’s valuationIncome statement
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue & profit | |||||||||
| Revenue | $7.55B | $8.63B | $9.87B | $11.31B | $11.93B | $12.98B | $14.39B | $15.96B | $18.11B |
| Cost of revenue | $5.84B | $6.57B | $7.29B | $8.3B | $8.9B | $9.46B | $10.94B | $11.76B | $13.13B |
| Gross profit | $1.71B | $2.06B | $2.59B | $3.02B | $3.03B | $3.31B | $3.75B | $4.09B | $4.7B |
| Gross margin | +22.62% | +23.88% | +26.20% | +26.67% | +25.38% | +25.49% | +26.05% | +25.64% | +25.94% |
| Operating | |||||||||
| Research & development | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Selling, general & administrative | $606.85M | $564.19M | $633.58M | $697.48M | $652.02M | $783.74M | $850.13M | $938.98M | $1.11B |
| Total operating expenses | $902.07M | $901.72M | $1.03B | $1.1B | $1.01B | $1.25B | $1.36B | $1.49B | $1.78B |
| Operating income | $804.94M | $1.16B | $1.56B | $1.92B | $2.01B | $2.16B | $2.36B | $2.68B | $3.06B |
| Operating margin | +10.67% | +13.44% | +15.78% | +16.94% | +16.88% | +16.63% | +16.38% | +16.81% | +16.92% |
| EBITDA | $1.1B | $1.5B | $1.95B | $2.32B | $2.37B | $2.54B | $2.89B | $3.19B | $3.55B |
| EBIT | $845.5M | $1.21B | $1.63B | $1.99B | $2.01B | $2.17B | $2.43B | $2.72B | $3.08B |
| Below the line | |||||||||
| Interest expense | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Interest income | $7.82M | $21.13M | $62.69M | $93.9M | $73.72M | $88.95M | $97.65M | $112.32M | $125.77M |
| Other income / expense | $7.82M | $21.13M | $62.69M | $93.9M | -$3.29M | — | — | — | — |
| Pre-tax income | $812.76M | $1.18B | $1.62B | $2.01B | $2.01B | $2.27B | $2.49B | $2.79B | $3.13B |
| Income tax expense | $159.78M | $282.43M | $391.77M | $476.12M | $473.76M | $538.29M | $573.24M | $651.69M | $732.03M |
| Earnings | |||||||||
| Net income | $652.98M | $899.1M | $1.23B | $1.53B | $1.54B | $1.64B | $1.9B | $2.1B | $2.34B |
| Net income · continuing ops | $652.98M | $899.1M | $1.23B | $1.53B | $1.54B | $1.71B | $1.82B | $2.07B | $2.36B |
| Net margin | +8.65% | +10.41% | +12.45% | +13.56% | +12.88% | +12.65% | +13.23% | +13.16% | +12.91% |
| EPS · basic | $0.46 | $0.65 | $0.89 | $1.12 | $1.15 | $1.16 | $1.36 | $1.60 | $2.00 |
| EPS · diluted | $0.46 | $0.64 | $0.89 | $1.11 | $1.14 | $1.14 | $1.36 | $1.60 | $2.01 |
| EPS · low estimate | — | — | — | — | — | $1.08 | $1.28 | $1.53 | $1.97 |
| EPS · high estimate | — | — | — | — | — | $1.21 | $1.46 | $1.69 | $2.06 |
| Shares · basic | 1.41B | 1.39B | 1.38B | 1.37B | 1.34B | 1.35B | 1.33B | 1.35B | 1.33B |
| Shares · diluted | 1.43B | 1.4B | 1.39B | 1.38B | 1.34B | 1.34B | 1.35B | 1.34B | 1.36B |
| Coverage | |||||||||
| Analysts (revenue) | — | — | — | — | — | 26 | 26 | 13 | 12 |
| Analysts (EPS) | — | — | — | — | — | 21 | 22 | 6 | 4 |
Coverage notes. Historical figures come’s as-reported income statements / balance sheets / cash flows in our data warehouse. Forecast columns (italicised, faint accent tint) carry vendor-supplied numbers where available (revenue + EPS consensus) and ratio-derived values for every other line. Margins / ratios are the trailing-3y average from history applied to the forecast revenue; values are clamped to enforce P&L identity (gross ≥ operating, EBITDA ≥ operating, net ≤ operating) and balance-sheet identity (assets = liabilities + equity by construction). Cash-flow FCF reconciles to OCF + CapEx. USD conversion uses the period-end close of the issuer's reported/USD pair from forex_prices_daily; share counts stay unconverted.
Financials
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