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Arphra AIPlain-English read on Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.’s valuationIncome statement
| In USD | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue & profit | ||||||||
| Revenue | $8.21B | $8.55B | $10.07B | $11.55B | $13.94B | $16.74B | $18.26B | $20.06B |
| Cost of revenue | $5.23B | $4.95B | $5.83B | $6.68B | $6.31B | $8.88B | $9.57B | $11.01B |
| Gross profit | $2.98B | $3.6B | $4.25B | $4.88B | $7.63B | $7.65B | $8.71B | $9.49B |
| Gross margin | +36.25% | +42.07% | +42.15% | +42.22% | +54.75% | +45.70% | +47.67% | +47.30% |
| Operating | ||||||||
| Research & development | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Selling, general & administrative | $3.93B | $4.8B | $5.68B | $6.52B | $7B | $8.86B | $9.95B | $10.75B |
| Total operating expenses | $1.64B | $1.93B | $2.39B | $2.6B | $5.08B | $4.68B | $5.09B | $5.49B |
| Operating income | $1.34B | $1.67B | $1.86B | $2.28B | $2.55B | $3.15B | $3.5B | $3.88B |
| Operating margin | +16.29% | +19.49% | +18.46% | +19.75% | +18.28% | +18.80% | +19.15% | +19.34% |
| EBITDA | $1.77B | $2.18B | $2.18B | $3.1B | $3.66B | $4.27B | $4.45B | $5.01B |
| EBIT | $1.2B | $1.58B | $1.48B | $2.26B | $2.54B | $2.9B | $3.13B | $3.46B |
| Below the line | ||||||||
| Interest expense | $226.1M | $256.9M | $296.7M | $381.3M | $638.8M | $601.8M | $666.06M | $706.57M |
| Interest income | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Other income / expense | -$361.9M | -$339.9M | -$674M | -$407.3M | -$677.9M | — | — | — |
| Pre-tax income | $975.1M | $1.33B | $1.19B | $1.87B | $1.87B | $2.34B | $2.52B | $2.81B |
| Income tax expense | $20.1M | $211M | $219.1M | $404.4M | $368.3M | $451.78M | $510.02M | $563.86M |
| Earnings | ||||||||
| Net income | $906.8M | $1.11B | $969.5M | $1.46B | $1.49B | $1.87B | $2.06B | $2.25B |
| Net income · continuing ops | $955M | $1.12B | $966M | $1.47B | $1.5B | $1.86B | $2B | $2.18B |
| Net margin | +11.05% | +13.03% | +9.63% | +12.66% | +10.72% | +11.15% | +11.29% | +11.23% |
| EPS · basic | $4.47 | $5.30 | $4.51 | $6.63 | $5.83 | $13.38 | $15.32 | $16.64 |
| EPS · diluted | $4.37 | $5.19 | $4.42 | $6.53 | $5.75 | $13.28 | $14.90 | $16.61 |
| EPS · low estimate | — | — | — | — | — | $12.70 | $14.38 | $15.72 |
| EPS · high estimate | — | — | — | — | — | $13.77 | $15.64 | $17.91 |
| Shares · basic | 202.7M | 210.3M | 214.9M | 220.5M | 260.34M | 259.34M | 262.72M | 262.01M |
| Shares · diluted | 207.3M | 214.7M | 219.3M | 223.9M | 260.34M | 262.24M | 259.26M | 260.27M |
| Coverage | ||||||||
| Analysts (revenue) | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 8 | 5 |
| Analysts (EPS) | — | — | — | — | — | 13 | 13 | 3 |
Coverage notes. Historical figures come’s as-reported income statements / balance sheets / cash flows in our data warehouse. Forecast columns (italicised, faint accent tint) carry vendor-supplied numbers where available (revenue + EPS consensus) and ratio-derived values for every other line. Margins / ratios are the trailing-3y average from history applied to the forecast revenue; values are clamped to enforce P&L identity (gross ≥ operating, EBITDA ≥ operating, net ≤ operating) and balance-sheet identity (assets = liabilities + equity by construction). Cash-flow FCF reconciles to OCF + CapEx. USD conversion uses the period-end close of the issuer's reported/USD pair from forex_prices_daily; share counts stay unconverted.
Financials
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